Holiday Ecommerce Forecast – Expected Growth with a Chance of Record-High Discounts

We’re on the cusp of the largest global shopping season of the year, with 2022 worldwide online holiday retail sales set to hit $5.5 trillion. This marks a notable increase in worldwide holiday ecommerce sales compared to the $4.92 trillion pulled in during the same time last year.

In 2021, the U.S. holiday shopping season alone reached the strongest retail growth in 20+ years. This was largely due to the brick-and-mortar comeback coupled with a surge in discretionary income enabled by the government stimulus, wage increases, and earlier holiday ecommerce sales and promotions.

Fast forward to 2022, the U.S. holiday ecommerce season is shaping up to be one fueled by growth. Holiday ecommerce is projected to rise 15.5% and grow to $235 billion in estimated sales compared to $204 billion in 2021.

What’s driving the promising 2022 holiday ecommerce projections?

Abundance of discounts

In a strategic effort to offload inventory, 2022 is set to reach record highs when it comes to the holiday discounts offered. Shoppers can expect to see discounts exceed 32 percent. This is a stark contrast from 2021, where supply chain backlogs and increasing costs left consumers with a scarcity of discount codes that fell below the 10 to 30 percent average.

Longer shopping season

As inflation continues to rise in the United States, price-conscious consumers are getting a head start on their holiday shopping to avoid greater price increases. Worldwide, 42 percent more shoppers are even starting their shopping earlier than normal. Retail giants are listening. Companies like Amazon kicked off their annual Prime Day in July and even surprised consumers with a second sales event in October, the Amazon Prime Early Access Sale. To elongate the shopping season and encourage greater consumer spend, other retailers have followed suit by launching their own Q3 and Q4 sales events.

Explore the infographic below to learn about the market size, retail sales projections, consumer behavior, and brand strategies that will define this year’s holiday ecommerce season.